What is exponential? Why is AI exponential?
We hear a lot of talk about AI being an exponential technology. Easy to say, but what does it really mean? What is exponential? Why is AI exponential?
Exponential is short for “exponential rate of growth”. We all remember what an exponent is from school. For example, 2 to the 4th power is 2x2x2x2=16. If exponential is this simple, why is it so powerful? Because 2 to the 5th power is 32, 2 to the 6th power is 64, 2 to the 7th power is 128 and 2 to the 8th power is 256. You can see that the numbers start to grow quickly. Exponential growth starts out slowly and then builds rapidly at a certain point. Exponential growth is deceptive at first because you don’t really notice it, but suddenly (for a human) it build to extraordinary levels.
Most things on Earth are not exponential. Most are linear. Linear growth is much more slow and easier to understand. For example, 2+2+2+2=8. Further increases only build to 10, 12, 14, etc. Looked at visually, you can see how much slower linear growth is. Linear growth is what we see in the number of cars, number of countries, etc. The growth is slow and steady.
What are some of the few examples of exponential growth? Population is one. Growth of viruses and bacteria can be exponential (which we sadly know all too well after the last 18 months). The number of transistors on a chip has been one so far (Moore’s law). AI, robotics and computer vision are a cluster of current exponential technologies, currently growing at a rate of over 200% each (at least). The number of robots sold each year is roughly doubling every couple of years now. Computer vision (sensors) have advanced at a stunning rate in the last 5 years, enabling limited (so far) self-driving, self-parking and much, much more. AI was very limited only 9 years ago. AI would only work in a very narrow application and only if the dataset was huge and very well labeled. With the invention of the working neural network in 2012–2015, the rate of change in AI accelerated dramatically.
So why is AI (and robotics and computer vision) exponential? Because it’s capabilities and adoption grow year-over-year at many multiples now. Also, these three technologies are an exponential cluster, each driving the others at a faster and faster rate.
How does this affect us humans? By 2030, robots will have become sophisticated enough to begin replacing humans in many different areas of work, far beyond what has already happened on the factory floor and in the warehouse. We are talking manning the counters at Starbucks, diners and more, for example. Fast food cooks will not exist by then. Because AI is driving these robots of the future, they will be able to learn and adapt and do more and more tasks all the time. So many industries will be disrupted that it’s hard to comprehend for us linear humans today. Experts forecast tens of millions of jobs lost to automation. Remember the long lines of unemployed people that you saw in 2020 and in pictures of the Great Depression? Now you understand.
That’s why exponential matters, and why you need to be aware of it and care about it.
The AI Guide provides FREE resources to help you understand and prepare for the coming tsunami of job loss. https://davidtheaiguide.com
